The data on market action during midterm election years is consistent with our present thesis for the balance of 2018. That is, a volatile — potentially rougher than your typical midterm election-year summer (read tariffs) — with a potentially strong finish for the year.
That strong finish, however, requires that general conditions hold up against the huge headwind of protectionism. While our macro index continues to score historically high — suggesting probabilities favor an ultimate further advance into all-time high territory for equities — certain internals have indeed begun to wane. We’ll keep you posted.
Here’s Bespoke Investment Group on the topic:
In terms of how the stock market performs
in the second half of mid-term election
years, below is a table that provides detailed
historical results.
The bottom line is that historically, the S&P
generally trades weaker than normal during
the summer months of mid-term years, but
it has actually traded slightly more positive than normal from mid-term election day through year-end.
click to enlarge…..
