From the get go, we’ve expressed our concerns with regard to the risk of the Administration making good on what many thought was mere protectionist rhetoric; while all along acknowledging that its other ambitions, like tax reform and deregulation, had absolutely moved the business sentiment needle in a positive direction. And the latter is no small deal when it comes to the economy. I.e., when producers and consumers feel good about their lots, they become very stimulative economic agents.

Therefore, as we assess macro conditions (the prospects for corporate earnings going forward), we pay very close attention to the mood of consumers and producers alike. 


These blurbs from two Bloomberg Economics daily briefs hint at how the Administration simply can’t have it both ways. 

“Economy-wide corporate profits reported in Wednesday’s GDP release are likely to signal a sound, if not improving, business landscape at the year-end 2017. However, souring equity-market sentiment and mounting concerns over trade tariffs more recently threaten to weigh on some of the “animal spirits” that have materialized over the past year.” 

“While consumers’ assessment of business conditions as “good” increased, those describing business conditions are “bad” also rose. The primary reason for this could be the news about the imposition of tariffs on certain imported goods, which could potentially lead to a broad-based trade conflict.”

If, as we’ve hoped, Washington will heed the market’s warnings, a resolution to the present trade disputes is forthcoming, alleviating this threat to those all important “animal spirits”. If not, we’ll have to brace for an even rockier road ahead…