Here’s a snippet from this morning’s entry to our internal log. In essence, it’s what I’m thinking about the immediate market impact of recent events, as well as the near-term prospects for equities: 

The global economy is exhibiting across the board health that it
hasn’t seen in years, and it’s so welcomed by the world that there’s very little
stomach for unnecessary politically-inspired turmoil. The backdrop for equities
is such that if this (the multiple [NAFTA, steel/aluminum tariffs, China tariffs, etc.] trade disputes) doesn’t get drawn out long enough to crack the general
setup we’ll see a sharp rally in
stocks, likely to new highs. 

Seasonally-speaking we’re in about a 5-week window for a
monster rally; meaning, traders are fully aware that March and
April are historically the two best months of the year for stocks. The
late-January/early-February correction was perfect timing; meaning, it was a breather that would’ve provided a huge springboard heading into the
March/April period. The tariffs have effectively cut the legs (the springs)
right out from under the market…

That said, as long as this nonsense doesn’t persist long enough
to do real damage to general conditions (first via a depreciation in business
sentiment), we can be in the middle of what is
seasonally-speaking a typically rough time for the market (May to November) and still see a
substantial upside move; it just won’t be as
easy and straight as it would’ve been had it occurred, say, within the next 1-4
weeks.

Without near-term resolutions the market will likely trade in volatile fashion (with a downside bias), while we continue to closely monitor macro conditions.