So a young man says to me over the weekend “they say Apple is going down. What do you think?” I explain why I never listen to “they”. I then offer up an alternative scenario and escape the conversation without making a recommendation. A minute later I overhear him complaining to my son Nick (we’re between basketball games), “your Dad always answers my questions like an attorney!”
While relaxing that afternoon with Jack Schwager’s instructive book A Complete Guide to the Futures Market, I think of my young friend as I read:
“Trading on the basis of market websites, newspaper articles, and newswire stories, falls into this category. It is no surprise that speculators who base their trades on such items are usually spectacularly unsuccessful. The only major exception are those traders who use this type of information in a contrary way, such as viewing the failure of the market to rally after the release of a bullish newswire story as a signal to go short.”
This is absolutely my observation, and has been my experience over my 30+ years in the investment business.