Yes, the setup remains notably bullish, and we suspect, therefore, that this market can withstand a lot. But, as we all know, there are always risks. In our year-end letter we cited U.S.-led protectionism as being chief among them.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is in Davos this week. Ironically, while the rest of the world (you name the country) is pounding the table on advancing international trade, the U.S. — the traditional standard-bearer in that regard — has been regrettably (in our view) sounding a very non-U.S.-traditional tune. Thus far (save for this week on solar components [which the world viewed as tamer than expected] and washing machines) it’s been more noise than substance. Frankly, for virtually every reason (economic, financial market, U.S. consumer, freedom) imaginable, it needs to stay that way!
Bloomberg headline (from Davos):
“Ross Talks, Stocks Fade”
The Dow was up 150 this morning, down 11 as I type, with, per our year-end letter, tech leading the way lower.
Of course we’ve been suggesting (will again in this week’s message) that you should expect substantially more volatility — for whatever reason(s) — in 2018.