Every now and again a client will quote a Wall Street guru’s market prediction. Goes something like “Hey Marty, Soandso says the S&P’s going up 12% next year.” Or, “Soandso says the next bear market (that would be a 20+% decline) is just around the corner.”
Well, my reply — with the utmost confidence by the way — is “Soandso is utterly clueless!“
Why so brash and condescending? Well, I don’t mean to be, I just like being right. And the odds that Soandso is way off the mark are very high indeed.
Take a look (far right column) at how bad Wall Street’s “experts” are at predicting the results of their own game:
Bespoke Investment Group
In all fairness, it’s a complete exercise in futility to predict stock market % returns, hence the abysmal record! I guess I struggle with the fact that they even try to begin with.
The sad (and destructive) thing being that unsuspecting investors too often believe that what they see/hear/read in the financial media is actionable. Frankly, too much of it ain’t!