Here’s how markets are trading this morning, as I type — it’s 6:46 am PDT:
Dow: -66 (-.31%)
S&P 500: -10 (-.41%)
Nasdaq Comp: -54 (-.84%)
Europe Stoxx: -3 (-.7%)
Japan Nikkei: -257 (-1.3%)
So. Korea (KOSPI): -26 (-1.1%)
Options Volatility Pricing:
S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX): +1.48 (+13.0%)
Global Fear Barometers:
Gold: +16.1 (+1.3%)
Treasuries (TLT): +1.1 (+.91%)
So let’s pretend we’re deaf to the news — or, if you prefer, the noise — should the above be the least bit rattling?
Well, looking at the U.S. equity averages, I’ll answer for you: Nope. Half-a-point here or there ain’t nothin.
Looking at Asia, on the other hand, those are bigger drawdowns. To match Japan this morning, the Dow would be off about 290 points. While that, to you, might be a bit rattling, in the historic scheme of things… well… ain’t nothin.
Besides, whether it’s “fire and fury”, French government debt, fake news or flamboyant politicians, this week and next, ironically, have been far and away the worst 2-week period for U.S. stocks over the past 10 years:
click to enlarge…
So, just to get to the median (for the 2-week period we’re in), we need to see about three times the decline we’ve seen this morning. To match 2013 (a hugely good year [S&P +29%]), we need the Dow to shave off another 500 points or so.
Aside from — or along with — seasonality (never ever the basis for a long-term investment strategy btw), our longer-term trend data, for now (always subject to change), says this is volatility to ignore.
As for the news/noise, well, ignoring that will be difficult.
We’ll keep you posted…