Chart of the Day: Buckle up! — Or — The Two-Tone Market

It’s easy for, and presumably incumbent upon, the media to tie some event to every market blip. But what we’ve come to realize over many years of market watching is that for the market to at all blip, it first has to be in the mood for blipping. 

If I had a nickel for every time a news event didn’t spark the logically commensurate financial market reaction (be it in stocks, bonds, currencies and/or metals) — either for the good or for the bad — well, suffice it to say I’d have a lot of nickels right about now. I.e., when the general tone of the market (all players in the aggregate) is antsy, the slightest breeze appears to send prices reeling. When, however, the general tone is steadfastly bullish, virtually the same breeze (or worse) might appear as a catalyst sending it to all time highs. Thus, in reality, it’s the underlying tone that ultimately determines the next noticeable move in stock prices. 


In this week’s message we essentially — with charts — pointed out the division between the short (blippy) and long-term (steady) tones of the present market. 


As for what’s behind the present blippiness, could be the present political uncertainty we’re all too familiar with (which would be the media’s narrative), or perhaps it’s simply the weather. Or the season, so to speak.


Per Bespoke Investment Group’s chart below, we’re just now entering what has been the most volatile month of the year for stocks, all the way back to 1928. And, trust me, they’re not the only ones aware of it:


click to enlarge…

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