David Stockman — a man who has leveraged his tenure with the Reagan administration to the absolute hilt — has a warning for all investors:
“There is nothing rational about this market. It’s just a machine-trading-driven bubble that’s nearing some kind of all-time craziness, mania.”
If you find the above at all troubling, read my June 19 blog post and you should feel much better.
Not that the next bear market isn’t just around the corner, it — despite the data suggesting otherwise — certainly could be. But, per my chronology of Stockman predictions, he’s not remotely a credible source of market wisdom.
In fact, the last thing in the world an investor with a quantifiable edge would ever do is share it with the world.
As Michael W. Covel frankly puts in his instructive book Trend Commandments:
If you hear talk about geometry, astrology, or market turning points, reach for your wallet, you are about to be ripped off.
P.s. I have no problem whatsoever with bearish sentiment. In fact, you’ll get it from me when the data call for it. I do, however, have a problem with thoughtless prognostications (bearish or bullish) that serve illegitimate aims, such as drawing the attention of an unsuspecting audience in order to sell ad space, a book, or a few ounces of gold.