Have you been thinking that since, in some areas, home prices have moved back into record territory, that there exists yet another housing bubble just waiting to pop? Well, trust me, you’re not alone. Although, while I completely understand, I wouldn’t be one who presently shares your concern.
Now, we can get into the weeds in terms of how the 2008 debacle was as much (if not more) about mortgage backed securities as it was about housing prices, and the fact that conditions there are nowhere near those of the Great Recession — but let’s save that one for when we have more time. If we simply stay with housing conditions and consider data such as housing starts, new home sales and, perhaps most importantly, homes for sale inventory, and compare to the great peak, we realize that the kind of stressors one might consider bubble-like simply don’t exist in today’s housing market.
Starts are at December ’92 levels, new home sales are where they were in February ’93, and we haven’t seen inventory this low since January 2001.
Take a look: click to enlarge…
As for prices: With supply so remarkably low relative to demand (the opposite of a bubble), they’re virtually destined to go even higher from here.