During client review meetings — along with performance results, sector weightings, etc. — I generally offer up a bit of the data that influence my view of the current market setup. In virtually every instance I follow my assessment with words to the effect: “my view is based entirely on the data I presently have at my disposal. Ask me tomorrow and, as the data may have changed, I may have changed my view.”
In other words, I never tell it like you might think I’d like it to be. In fact, I am agnostic when it comes to market direction. Truth be told, I really don’t care if the trend is up or down, I only care about recognizing it.
William Dunnigan in New Blueprints for Stocks and Grains had it right back in 1956:
“Let us believe that it is possible to profit through economic changes by following today’s trend, as it is revealed statistically day-by-day, week-by-week, or month-by-month. In doing this we should entertain no preconceived notions as to whether business is going to boom or bust, or that the Dow-Jones Industrial Average is going to 500 or 50. We will merely chart our course and steer our ship in the direction of the prevailing wind. When the economic weather changes, we will change our course with it and will not try to forecast the future time or place at which the winds will change.”
As did Joe Friday:
“Just the facts ma’am.”