I swear, not a day goes by where I don’t catch a headline, or a passing comment from someone who truly ought to know better, that has me thinking precisely what Michael Covel points out in today’s quote.
Yesterday, for example, I walked into my office to find my television on. I was surprised, for two reasons: 1. I didn’t know it still works (that’s how long it’s been since I’ve had it on). And 2. It was turned on.
At the time, Nick was setting up my computer (we’re remodeling and last weekend the new carpet happened), he swore it wasn’t him. My best guess is that the folks who reassembled the hutch upon which the TV sits tested to make sure they plugged it back in properly and forgot to turn it off. What made it particularly annoying was the sight and sound of CNBC’s Rick Santelli (I recall him from years past while I was learning that there was absolutely nothing to learn by watching financial television) working a dry erase board and describing some dynamic about the dollar that deserved hollering at the camera in the most condescending fashion. The problem I have (my palpable annoyance, that is) is my recollection of past rant-filled predictions — the majority of which of course turned out to be utter intellectualized rubbish.
Not to single out Mr. Santelli (he just happened to be the one on the tube when I walked in), for he’s just one of the many whom the media trots out who apparently can’t (we know this, trust me, otherwise they’d be trading, never talking at cameras, during the trading session), therefore they teach, or, as the case may be, they preach.
From Covel’s The Little Book of Trading (an insightful read, by the way):
Watching the news, reading the financial news and listening to the President is not how you make money in the markets. You don’t make money by explaining what just happened or by guessing what’s going to happen in the future. You don’t know what’s going to happen in the future, the things that occur in the future that make you money are all things you couldn’t figure out were going to happen.
It always makes for an interesting story to say “well this is going to happen because this or that’; that is information everybody already knows, it’s already baked into the market price.