Bespoke Investment Group took a look at how the past elections of new American presidents impacted stock market returns between election night and inauguration, and over the ensuing 4 years. As you can tell below, there’s nothing to go on. Which is a very good thing, because making bets on single events, no matter how big/important they may seem, is akin to believing that a slight breeze can determine the direction of a herd of elephants. Which would be a good way to get yourself trampled:
Perhaps the biggest
takeaway from these results is that while the short-term political makeup of Washington can have impacts
on the market, the US economy is a behemoth, and the policies of no party, no matter how good
(or bad depending on your views), cannot control its direction. Trends and events impact the economy
and markets, and an election is only one small piece of the puzzle.