Expensive game for Putin…

If you’re in that camp that thinks Putin’s recent rhetoric with regard to deescalating the Ukraine situation is just that—rhetoric—think again. Here’s a snippet from GEI’s What We Read Today 15 August 2014:

Rosneft asks Moscow for $42bn (Jack Farchy and Kathrin Hille, Financial Times) The crunch of sanctions is starting to show as the huge government owned energy company Rosneft asked the government for $42 billion to offset losses resulting from the western action. One of Putin’s most trusted economic advisors has said sanctions would cost Russia “at least” $200 billion over the next three years.  

Putin’s Ukraine gamble hastens exodus of Russian money and talent (Guy Faulconbridge, Shadi Bushra and Jack Stubbs, Reuters) Russia is paying a big price for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s adventures in Ukraine. Reuters reports that capital outflows are as much as 3-4 times normal and may reach amounts as high as 10% of the country’s GDP in 2014. And capital inflows which normally somewhat balance outflows have gone to zero. And some of the top talent in Russia is fleeing as well. From Lev Gudkov, director of the independent Moscow-based Levada Centre pollster:  “We are losing the most educated, most active, most entrepreneurial people.”

To remain in that camp you have to believe that Putin is willing to exacerbate the economic damage already delivered onto Russia and, therefore, to put his reign at risk personally destroy his own political career. Of course you may be right….. but I wouldn’t bet on it.

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