Euphoria This Ain't

Imagine that three years ago you experienced a terrible traffic accident – you barely survived… You’ve since recovered physically, in fact you’re healthier than you’ve ever been… You’re now driving down the highway in your new, bigger, safer, paid-for car and your tank is full of gas… The speed limit’s 70, but you’re in the far right lane doing 30…

Your head’s twitching like a finch in a swarm of gnats as you look left, right, over your shoulder and into the rearview mirror… You have places to go and the means to get there, but, still reeling emotionally, and seeing nothing but roadblocks ahead, you refuse to step on it…

This my friends is the plight of today’s CEO… I’ve stated here recently that corporate fundamentals – earnings, margins, balance sheets, valuations – look great, but economic fundamentals – jobs, GDP, Europe, etc. – look ghastly. And the government roadblocks – deficit, debt, uncertainty over taxes and regs – look gargantuan…

Make no mistake, if restoring confidence is key, as I’m sure it is, this recovery’s going to take a while…

In the meantime the market’s going to suffer its fits and starts – as it always has… 10% corrections, as I keep saying, have been annual events – as of yesterday, we’re there… The previous one occurred in May of last year (we almost got there again last July)… And remember folks, double digit corrections always come accompanied by apocalyptic fear…

If you’re long the stock market you can take comfort in John Templeton’s famous words; “Bull Markets Die on Euphoria”… I’m not making a prediction, but clearly, euphoria this ain’t…

Stay tuned…

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