Down Days

If there’s been one constant (pretty much) on the down days of late (Dow’s off 80+ as I type) it’s been a rising dollar… There’s a clearly negative correlation, at the moment, between the market and little green pieces of paper…

I.e., a weak dollar is bullish for U.S. exporters (their wares are cheap in foreign markets) and commodities prices… Bad however for you and me, when we’re talking gas and granola…

Therefore a strong dollar is bearish for U.S. exporters (although their input costs [the components they import] go down) and commodities prices… Good however for you and me, when we’re talking gas and granola…

So, considering that your money in equities is long-term (right?), while you may not appreciate your next account statement, long-term a stronger dollar is an all around very good thing…

But, alas, while I can make a near-term case for the dollar, unless we see a dramatic shift in U.S. fiscal and monetary policy, longer-term I wouldn’t hold my breath…

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